Preface |
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ix | |
Acknowledgments |
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xiii | |
1 Introduction |
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1 | (22) |
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1.1 Outline of the basic model |
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7 | (2) |
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1.2 The notion of a system |
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9 | (2) |
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1.3 The central role of collective behavior |
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11 | (3) |
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1.4 The assumption of rational expectations |
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14 | (3) |
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1.5 Relationship to other literature |
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17 | (6) |
Part I The basic model |
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2 Competitive equilibrium with storage |
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23 | (27) |
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2.1 Storers' arbitrage relationships |
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24 | (4) |
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2.2 Market-level prices and quantifies |
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28 | (4) |
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2.3 Market equilibrium with elastic supply |
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32 | (4) |
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2.4 Equilibrium for a specific example |
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36 | (9) |
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2.5 Key features of the equilibrium |
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45 | (5) |
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3 Solving for the storage equilibrium |
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50 | (49) |
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3.1 Reformulation as a social planner's problem |
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51 | (7) |
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3.2 An analytical example |
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58 | (4) |
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3.3 Further considerations with an infinite horizon |
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62 | (3) |
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3.4 Some "shortcut" solution strategies |
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65 | (6) |
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3.5 Solutions versus simulations |
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71 | (2) |
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Appendix: Numerical solution of the storage model |
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73 | (26) |
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3A.1 The technique of full enumeration |
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74 | (7) |
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3A.2 The technique of polynomial approximations |
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81 | (9) |
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90 | (3) |
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3A.4 Accuracy of the polynomial technique |
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93 | (6) |
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4 The effects of storage on production, consumption, and prices |
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99 | (29) |
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4.1 Characteristics of storage rules |
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99 | (3) |
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4.2 Long-run distributions |
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102 | (4) |
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4.3 Sensitivity to supply and demand parameters |
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106 | (10) |
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4.4 Sensitivity to storage costs |
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116 | (4) |
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4.5 Sensitivity to the probability distribution of the weather |
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120 | (6) |
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4.6 Conclusions from the sensitivity analysis |
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126 | (2) |
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5 Convergence to the steady state |
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128 | (29) |
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128 | (6) |
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5.2 Patterns among futures prices |
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134 | (7) |
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5.3 Response to a change in regime |
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141 | (5) |
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146 | (6) |
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152 | (5) |
Part II Implications of storage for research on time series |
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6 Time-series properties due to storage |
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157 | (17) |
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6.1 Extent of serial correlation |
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159 | (3) |
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6.2 Similarity to random walks |
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162 | (4) |
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6.3 Persistence of booms and busts |
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166 | (3) |
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169 | (3) |
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6.5 Applicability of ARMA specifications |
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172 | (2) |
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174 | (27) |
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7.1 Tests of forecasting ability |
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174 | (11) |
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7.2 Tests of bias in futures prices |
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185 | (5) |
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7.3 Tests of excessive variability in asset prices |
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190 | (2) |
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192 | (4) |
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7.5 Presumption against rational storage |
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196 | (5) |
Part III Extensions of the model |
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8 The market's reaction to news |
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201 | (28) |
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203 | (9) |
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8.2 Serial correlation in the random disturbance |
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212 | (5) |
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8.3 Two-period-lagged supply response |
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217 | (5) |
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8.4 A quarterly model with production once a year |
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222 | (4) |
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226 | (3) |
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9 The interaction of storage and trade |
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229 | (44) |
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9.1 Equilibrium with trade and storage |
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231 | (13) |
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9.2 Convergence to the steady state |
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244 | (5) |
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249 | (5) |
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9.4 Storage with a general tendency for net trade |
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254 | (5) |
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9.5 Sources of inherent randomness |
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259 | (4) |
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9.6 Relative size of countries |
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263 | (7) |
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9.7 Final comments on trade |
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270 | (3) |
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10 Inventories of raw materials, finished goods, and goods in process |
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273 | (37) |
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10.1 Inventories of raw material and finished goods |
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277 | (13) |
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10.2 Sensitivity analysis |
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290 | (8) |
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298 | (9) |
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10.4 Firm-level versus industry-level behavior |
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307 | (3) |
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11 Market power and storage |
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310 | (25) |
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11.1 Market power over distribution and storage |
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311 | (9) |
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11.2 Monopoly over storage alone |
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320 | (10) |
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11.3 Implications for modeling market power |
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330 | (5) |
Part IV Public interventions |
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12 Welfare analysis of market stabilization |
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335 | (23) |
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12.1 The effects of stabilization on individual welfare |
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337 | (4) |
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341 | (3) |
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12.3 Sensitivity of distributive effects to specification |
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344 | (4) |
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12.4 Dynamic welfare analysis |
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348 | (9) |
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12.5 The necessary range of welfare analysis |
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357 | (1) |
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358 | (33) |
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13.1 Market behavior with a price floor |
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360 | (9) |
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13.2 Welfare analysis of floor-price schemes |
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369 | (17) |
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13.3 The merits of private speculative storage in a floor-price scheme |
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386 | (5) |
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14 Public storage under price bands and price pegs |
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391 | (19) |
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14.1 The inherent explosiveness of symmetric price-band schemes |
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394 | (4) |
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14.2 Price-band schemes with private storage and elastic supply |
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398 | (5) |
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403 | (6) |
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14.4 Further doubts about price-band schemes |
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409 | (1) |
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15 Public policies to supplement private storage |
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410 | (45) |
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15.1 Rationales for public intervention |
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413 | (5) |
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15.2 The effects of price ceilings on private storage |
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418 | (5) |
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15.3 The effect of price ceilings in a system with two locations |
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423 | (5) |
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15.4 Possible public policies for supplementing private storage |
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428 | (10) |
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15.5 The displacement of private storage by public storage |
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438 | (7) |
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15.6 The welfare rankings of the various public policies |
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445 | (10) |
Part V Epilogue |
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16 Lessons about commodity markets and modeling strategies |
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455 | (36) |
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16.1 The standard of the first best |
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456 | (2) |
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16.2 Nonlinearities and discontinuities |
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458 | (1) |
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16.3 Endogenous responses to risk |
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458 | (2) |
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16.4 Multiperiod equlibrium models |
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460 | (1) |
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16.5 Our model and empirical work on commodity markets |
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461 | (2) |
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463 | (2) |
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465 | (26) |
Author index |
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491 | (6) |
Subject index |
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497 | |