Storage And Commodity Markets

by
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2005-11-24
Publisher(s): Cambridge University Press
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Summary

Storage and Commodity Markets is primarily a work of economic theory, concerned with how the capability to store a surplus affects the prices and production of commodities. Its focus on the behaviour, over time, of aggregate stockpiles provides insights into such questions as how much a country should store out of its current supply of food considering the uncertainty in future harvests. Related topics covered include whether storage or international trade is a more effective buffer and whether stockpiles are more useful in raw or processed form. Several chapters are devoted to analysing such government programmes as price bands, buffer stocks, and strategic reserves. This material is in the domain of applied welfare analysis with public finance. Because the theory presented is sufficiently general, it should be of interest to macroeconomists studying aggregate inventories or savings and to those in operations research studying inventory and pricing policies of large firms.

Table of Contents

Preface ix
Acknowledgments xiii
1 Introduction 1(22)
1.1 Outline of the basic model
7(2)
1.2 The notion of a system
9(2)
1.3 The central role of collective behavior
11(3)
1.4 The assumption of rational expectations
14(3)
1.5 Relationship to other literature
17(6)
Part I The basic model
2 Competitive equilibrium with storage
23(27)
2.1 Storers' arbitrage relationships
24(4)
2.2 Market-level prices and quantifies
28(4)
2.3 Market equilibrium with elastic supply
32(4)
2.4 Equilibrium for a specific example
36(9)
2.5 Key features of the equilibrium
45(5)
3 Solving for the storage equilibrium
50(49)
3.1 Reformulation as a social planner's problem
51(7)
3.2 An analytical example
58(4)
3.3 Further considerations with an infinite horizon
62(3)
3.4 Some "shortcut" solution strategies
65(6)
3.5 Solutions versus simulations
71(2)
Appendix: Numerical solution of the storage model
73(26)
3A.1 The technique of full enumeration
74(7)
3A.2 The technique of polynomial approximations
81(9)
3A.3 The cell technique
90(3)
3A.4 Accuracy of the polynomial technique
93(6)
4 The effects of storage on production, consumption, and prices
99(29)
4.1 Characteristics of storage rules
99(3)
4.2 Long-run distributions
102(4)
4.3 Sensitivity to supply and demand parameters
106(10)
4.4 Sensitivity to storage costs
116(4)
4.5 Sensitivity to the probability distribution of the weather
120(6)
4.6 Conclusions from the sensitivity analysis
126(2)
5 Convergence to the steady state
128(29)
5.1 Expected paths
128(6)
5.2 Patterns among futures prices
134(7)
5.3 Response to a change in regime
141(5)
5.4 The price of land
146(6)
5.5 Tools learned
152(5)
Part II Implications of storage for research on time series
6 Time-series properties due to storage
157(17)
6.1 Extent of serial correlation
159(3)
6.2 Similarity to random walks
162(4)
6.3 Persistence of booms and busts
166(3)
6.4 Higher-order moments
169(3)
6.5 Applicability of ARMA specifications
172(2)
7 Tests of rationality
174(27)
7.1 Tests of forecasting ability
174(11)
7.2 Tests of bias in futures prices
185(5)
7.3 Tests of excessive variability in asset prices
190(2)
7.4 Supply estimation
192(4)
7.5 Presumption against rational storage
196(5)
Part III Extensions of the model
8 The market's reaction to news
201(28)
8.1 Seasonality
203(9)
8.2 Serial correlation in the random disturbance
212(5)
8.3 Two-period-lagged supply response
217(5)
8.4 A quarterly model with production once a year
222(4)
8.5 Related problems
226(3)
9 The interaction of storage and trade
229(44)
9.1 Equilibrium with trade and storage
231(13)
9.2 Convergence to the steady state
244(5)
9.3 Trade versus storage
249(5)
9.4 Storage with a general tendency for net trade
254(5)
9.5 Sources of inherent randomness
259(4)
9.6 Relative size of countries
263(7)
9.7 Final comments on trade
270(3)
10 Inventories of raw materials, finished goods, and goods in process
273(37)
10.1 Inventories of raw material and finished goods
277(13)
10.2 Sensitivity analysis
290(8)
10.3 Goods in process
298(9)
10.4 Firm-level versus industry-level behavior
307(3)
11 Market power and storage
310(25)
11.1 Market power over distribution and storage
311(9)
11.2 Monopoly over storage alone
320(10)
11.3 Implications for modeling market power
330(5)
Part IV Public interventions
12 Welfare analysis of market stabilization
335(23)
12.1 The effects of stabilization on individual welfare
337(4)
12.2 Marketwide analysis
341(3)
12.3 Sensitivity of distributive effects to specification
344(4)
12.4 Dynamic welfare analysis
348(9)
12.5 The necessary range of welfare analysis
357(1)
13 Floor-price schemes
358(33)
13.1 Market behavior with a price floor
360(9)
13.2 Welfare analysis of floor-price schemes
369(17)
13.3 The merits of private speculative storage in a floor-price scheme
386(5)
14 Public storage under price bands and price pegs
391(19)
14.1 The inherent explosiveness of symmetric price-band schemes
394(4)
14.2 Price-band schemes with private storage and elastic supply
398(5)
14.3 Price pegs
403(6)
14.4 Further doubts about price-band schemes
409(1)
15 Public policies to supplement private storage
410(45)
15.1 Rationales for public intervention
413(5)
15.2 The effects of price ceilings on private storage
418(5)
15.3 The effect of price ceilings in a system with two locations
423(5)
15.4 Possible public policies for supplementing private storage
428(10)
15.5 The displacement of private storage by public storage
438(7)
15.6 The welfare rankings of the various public policies
445(10)
Part V Epilogue
16 Lessons about commodity markets and modeling strategies
455(36)
16.1 The standard of the first best
456(2)
16.2 Nonlinearities and discontinuities
458(1)
16.3 Endogenous responses to risk
458(2)
16.4 Multiperiod equlibrium models
460(1)
16.5 Our model and empirical work on commodity markets
461(2)
16.6 For the future
463(2)
References
465(26)
Author index 491(6)
Subject index 497

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