Acknowledgments |
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ix | |
Foreword |
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xiii | |
Preface |
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xix | |
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Who Am I to Tell You Something That Counts? |
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xix | |
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Idiots and Professionals: Oh, but I Repeat Myself |
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xxii | |
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Because Mr. Crafty, It's Not a Craft |
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xxvi | |
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It's All Latin to Me—Starting to Think like a Scientist |
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xxix | |
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The Only Three Questions That Count |
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xxx | |
1 Question One: What Do You Believe That Is Actually False? |
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1 | (36) |
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If You Knew It Was Wrong, You Wouldn't Believe It |
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1 | (7) |
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The Mythological Correlation |
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8 | (12) |
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Always Look at It Differently |
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20 | (7) |
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When You Are Really, Really Wrong |
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27 | (10) |
2 Question Two: What Can You Fathom That Others Find Unfathomable? |
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37 | (44) |
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Fathoming the Unfathomable |
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37 | (1) |
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Ignore the Rock in the Bushes |
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38 | (2) |
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Discounting the Media Machine and Advanced Fad Avoidance |
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40 | (8) |
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The Shocking Truth about Yield Curves |
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48 | (15) |
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What the Yield Curve Is Trying to Tell You |
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63 | (9) |
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The Presidential Term Cycle |
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72 | (9) |
3 Question Three: What the Heck Is My Brain Doing to Blindside Me Now? |
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81 | (38) |
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It's Not Your Fault—Blame Evolution |
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81 | (6) |
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Cracking the Stone Age Code—Pride and Regret |
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87 | (18) |
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The Great Humiliator's Favorite Tricks |
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105 | (2) |
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Get Your Head Out of the Cave |
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107 | (12) |
4 Capital Markets Technology |
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119 | (46) |
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Building and Putting Capital Markets Technology into Practice |
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119 | (3) |
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122 | (6) |
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Forecast with Accuracy, Not like a Professional |
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128 | (12) |
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Better Living through Global Benchmarking |
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140 | (25) |
5 When There's No There, There! |
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165 | (28) |
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Johns Hopkins, My Grampa, Life Lessons, and Pulling a Gertrude |
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165 | (6) |
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In the Center Ring—Oil versus Stocks |
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171 | (14) |
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Sell in May because the January Effect Will Dampen Your Santa Claus Rally Unless There Is a Witching Effect |
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185 | (8) |
6 No, It's Just the Opposite |
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193 | (42) |
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When You Are Wrong—Really, Really, Really Wrong |
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193 | (9) |
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Multiplier Effects and the Heroin-Addicted Apple iPod Borrower |
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202 | (11) |
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Let's Trade This Deficit for That One |
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213 | (9) |
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222 | (13) |
7 Shocking but True |
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235 | (38) |
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Supply and Demand...and That's It |
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235 | (22) |
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Weak Dollar, Strong Dollar—What Does It Matter? |
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257 | (16) |
8 The Great Humiliator and Your Stone-Age Brain |
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273 | (38) |
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273 | (9) |
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282 | (11) |
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293 | (11) |
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What Causes a Bear Market? |
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304 | (7) |
9 Putting It All Together |
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311 | (48) |
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Stick with Your Strategy and Stick It to Him |
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311 | (13) |
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324 | (19) |
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Finally! How to Pick Stocks That Only Win |
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343 | (9) |
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When the Heck Do You Sell? |
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352 | (7) |
Conclusion |
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359 | (8) |
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360 | (7) |
Appendix A: U.S. Equity Total Returns 1830 to 1925 |
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367 | (2) |
Appendix B: S&P 500 Composite Returns |
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369 | (6) |
Appendix C: Simulated Technology Returns |
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375 | (2) |
Appendix D: Nasdaq Composite Returns |
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377 | (4) |
Appendix E: U.K. Stock Market Total Returns |
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381 | (4) |
Appendix F: U.K. Stock Market (FTSE All-Share) Total Returns |
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385 | (4) |
Appendix G: Germany Stock Market Returns |
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389 | (4) |
Appendix H: Germany Stock Market (DAX) Total Returns |
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393 | (4) |
Appendix I: Japan Stock Market Total Returns |
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397 | (4) |
Appendix J: Japan Stock Market (TOPIX) Total Returns |
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401 | (4) |
Appendix K: Fisher Investments Global Total Return Performance |
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405 | (2) |
Appendix L: Ten-Year History of the Forbes Report Card |
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407 | (2) |
Appendix M: The United Deficits: Data |
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409 | (2) |
Notes |
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411 | (10) |
Glossary |
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421 | (10) |
Index |
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431 | |