| PART ONE: PRELIMINARIES |
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The Great Fundamental versus Technical Analysis Debate |
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3 | (4) |
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7 | (20) |
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7 | (1) |
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The Nature of Futures Markets |
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7 | (1) |
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8 | (1) |
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9 | (2) |
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11 | (1) |
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12 | (6) |
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Hedging Examples for a Commodity |
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12 | (3) |
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Hedging in Financial Futures |
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15 | (1) |
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General Observations Regarding Hedging |
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16 | (2) |
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18 | (1) |
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19 | (3) |
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22 | (1) |
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22 | (5) |
| PART TWO: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS |
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Fourteen Popular Fallacies, or What Not to Do Wrong |
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27 | (14) |
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27 | (2) |
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27 | (1) |
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28 | (1) |
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28 | (1) |
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28 | (1) |
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29 | (1) |
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29 | (12) |
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Viewing Fundamentals in a Vacuum |
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29 | (1) |
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Viewing Old Information as New |
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30 | (1) |
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30 | (1) |
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Using Fundamentals for Timing |
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31 | (1) |
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31 | (1) |
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Ignoring Relevant Time Considerations |
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32 | (1) |
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Assuming That Prices Cannot Decline Significantly Below the Cost of Production |
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32 | (1) |
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33 | (3) |
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Comparing Nominal Price Levels |
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36 | (1) |
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36 | (1) |
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Ignoring Seasonal Considerations |
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37 | (1) |
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Expecting Prices to Conform to Target Levels in World Trade Agreements |
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38 | (1) |
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Drawing Conclusions on the Basis of Insufficient Data |
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38 | (1) |
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Confusing the Concepts of Demand and Consumption |
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39 | (2) |
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Supply/Demand Analysis: Basic Economic Theory |
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41 | (16) |
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Supply and Demand Defined |
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41 | (4) |
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The Problem of Quantifying Demand |
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45 | (1) |
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Understanding the Difference Between Consumption and Demand |
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46 | (3) |
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The Need to Incorporate Demand |
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49 | (2) |
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Possible Methods for Incorporating Demand |
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51 | (5) |
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Why Traditional Fundamental Analysis Doesn't Work in the Gold Market |
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56 | (1) |
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Types of Fundamental Analysis |
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57 | (16) |
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The ``Old Hand'' Approach |
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57 | (1) |
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57 | (1) |
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The Tabular and Graphic Approach |
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58 | (9) |
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67 | (1) |
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68 | (1) |
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The Analogous Season Method |
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69 | (1) |
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Rank Classification Method |
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69 | (1) |
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70 | (3) |
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Applying Technical Analysis to Fundamental Data |
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73 | (28) |
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Methods of Trend Definition |
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73 | (1) |
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74 | (4) |
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78 | (6) |
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The Need to Incorporate Data Lags |
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84 | (6) |
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90 | (4) |
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The Danger of Optimization |
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94 | (2) |
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Lags for Data Availability |
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96 | (1) |
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96 | (1) |
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An Example of an Index Model |
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97 | (3) |
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100 | (1) |
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101 | (7) |
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Using Prior-Year Estimates Rather Than Revised Statistics |
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101 | (4) |
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Adding Expectations as a Variable in the Price-Forecasting Model |
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105 | (1) |
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The Influence of Expectations on Actual Statistics |
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106 | (1) |
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Defining New-Crop Expectations |
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107 | (1) |
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108 | (7) |
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115 | (34) |
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The Concept of Seasonal Trading |
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115 | (1) |
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Cash versus Futures Price Seasonality |
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115 | (1) |
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116 | (1) |
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Is It Real or Is It Probability? |
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116 | (1) |
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Calculating a Seasonal Index |
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117 | (9) |
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117 | (4) |
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121 | (5) |
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126 | (4) |
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130 | (4) |
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Maximum Gain/Maximum Loss Seasonal Comparisons |
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134 | (1) |
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Counterseasonal Price Action |
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134 | (2) |
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Chart Detection of Seasonalities |
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136 | (12) |
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148 | (1) |
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Market-by-Market Seasonality |
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149 | (35) |
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Interpreting the Tables in This Chapter |
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149 | (1) |
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Interpreting the Charts in This Chapter |
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150 | (1) |
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A Word About the Price Data Used in Constructing Seasonal Indexes |
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151 | (1) |
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Caveats in Using Seasonal Information for Trading |
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152 | (1) |
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Seasonal Tables and Charts |
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152 | (32) |
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Analyzing Market Response |
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184 | (12) |
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Evaluating Market Response for Repetitive Events |
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184 | (6) |
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USDA Hogs and Pigs Report |
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184 | (5) |
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October Orange Production and Yield Estimate |
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189 | (1) |
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Counter-to-Anticipated Market Response |
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190 | (6) |
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190 | (3) |
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193 | (3) |
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Government Programs and International Agreements |
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196 | (20) |
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A Focus on Price Influence |
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196 | (2) |
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U.S. Agricultural Policy: A Conflict of Goals |
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198 | (1) |
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199 | (3) |
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Acreage Reduction Program |
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199 | (1) |
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200 | (1) |
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201 | (1) |
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202 | (1) |
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The Price-Support Loan Program |
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202 | (4) |
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203 | (3) |
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Target Prices and Deficiency Payments |
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206 | (1) |
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206 | (1) |
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207 | (2) |
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209 | (1) |
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210 | (1) |
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Summary: Domestic Government Programs |
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211 | (1) |
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212 | (2) |
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214 | (2) |
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Building a Forecasting Model: A Step-by-Step Approach |
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216 | (4) |
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Fundamental Analysis and Trading |
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220 | (21) |
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Fundamental versus Technical Analysis: A Greater Need for Caution |
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220 | (1) |
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Three Major Pitfalls in Fundamental Analysis |
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221 | (7) |
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Combining Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis and Money Management |
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228 | (1) |
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Why Bother With Fundamentals? |
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229 | (1) |
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Are Fundamentals Instantaneously Discounted? |
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230 | (4) |
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Fitting the News to Price Moves |
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234 | (1) |
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Fundamental Developments: Long-Term Implications versus Short-Term Response |
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235 | (3) |
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238 | (3) |
| PART THREE: A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO REGRESSION ANALYSIS |
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Introduction to Regression Analysis |
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241 | (8) |
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241 | (3) |
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244 | (2) |
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246 | (2) |
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Reliability of the Regression Forecast |
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248 | (1) |
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A Review of Elementary Statistics |
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249 | (25) |
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249 | (2) |
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Probability Distributions |
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251 | (6) |
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Reading the Normal Curve (Z) Table |
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257 | (3) |
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260 | (1) |
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Estimating the Population Mean and Standard Deviation from the Sample Statistics |
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260 | (2) |
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262 | (2) |
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264 | (2) |
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Standard Error of the Mean |
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266 | (1) |
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267 | (2) |
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269 | (5) |
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Checking the Significance of the Regression Equation |
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274 | (19) |
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The Population Regression Line |
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274 | (1) |
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Basic Assumptions of Regression Analysis |
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275 | (8) |
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Testing the Significance of the Regression Coefficients |
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283 | (1) |
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Standard Error of the Regression |
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283 | (1) |
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Confidence Interval for an Individual Forecast |
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284 | (2) |
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286 | (1) |
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Coefficient of Determination (r2) |
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287 | (4) |
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Spurious (``Nonsense'') Correlations |
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291 | (2) |
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The Multiple Regression Model |
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293 | (13) |
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Basics of Multiple Regression |
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293 | (3) |
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Applying the t-Test in the Multiple Regression Model |
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296 | (2) |
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Standard Error of the Regression |
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298 | (1) |
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Confidence Intervals for an Individual Forecast Yf |
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299 | (1) |
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299 | (2) |
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301 | (2) |
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Reading the Computer Printout |
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303 | (3) |
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Analyzing the Regression Equation |
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306 | (41) |
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306 | (4) |
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310 | (2) |
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312 | (1) |
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The Durbin-Watson Statistic as Measure of Autocorrelation |
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312 | (3) |
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The Implications of Autocorrelation |
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315 | (1) |
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Missing Variables and Time Trend |
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316 | (11) |
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Transformations to Achieve Linearity |
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327 | (3) |
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Transformation to Remove Autocorrelation |
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330 | (2) |
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332 | (2) |
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334 | (6) |
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340 | (7) |
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Practical Considerations in Applying Regression Analysis |
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347 | (14) |
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Determining the Dependent Variable |
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347 | (2) |
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Selecting the Independent Variables |
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349 | (2) |
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349 | (1) |
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Should the Preforecast Period Price Be Included? |
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350 | (1) |
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Choosing the Length of the Survey Period |
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351 | (1) |
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Sources of Forecast Error |
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352 | (2) |
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354 | (1) |
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355 | (1) |
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Sample Step-by-Step Regression Procedure |
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356 | (1) |
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357 | (1) |
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References (Chapters Fifteen-Twenty) and Recommended Readings |
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358 | (3) |
| PART FOUR: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS APPLIED THE MARKETS |
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361 | (14) |
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361 | (3) |
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364 | (1) |
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Price Forecasting Model 1 |
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364 | (5) |
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Price Forecasting Model 2 |
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369 | (1) |
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Allowing for Forecast Error |
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370 | (1) |
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Projecting Price Highs and Lows |
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371 | (1) |
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Price Forecasts and Trading |
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372 | (1) |
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373 | (2) |
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Forecasting Cattle Prices |
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375 | (17) |
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Consumption Is Entirely a Function of Production |
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375 | (1) |
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376 | (3) |
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379 | (2) |
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381 | (7) |
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382 | (2) |
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384 | (1) |
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385 | (3) |
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Major Secular Changes in the Cattle Industry |
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388 | (3) |
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391 | (1) |
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392 | (16) |
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The Stocks/Disappearance Ratio as a Key Fundamental Indicator |
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392 | (3) |
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A Background Sketch of Wheat Fundamentals |
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395 | (4) |
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395 | (2) |
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397 | (1) |
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397 | (2) |
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Annual Wheat-Price-Forecasting Model |
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399 | (5) |
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A Background Sketch of Corn Fundamentals |
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404 | |
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404 | (1) |
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404 | |
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Quarterly Corn-Price-Forecasting Model |
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401 | (6) |
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407 | (1) |
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Forecasting Soybean Prices |
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408 | (25) |
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The Analogous Season Study: A Fundamental Timing Approach |
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408 | (2) |
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Background Sketch of Fundamentals |
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410 | (6) |
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410 | (1) |
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411 | (1) |
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411 | (3) |
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414 | (2) |
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416 | (1) |
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416 | (1) |
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416 | (6) |
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418 | (2) |
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420 | (1) |
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420 | (1) |
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420 | (2) |
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422 | (1) |
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422 | (1) |
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Consistent Seasonal Patterns |
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422 | (4) |
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423 | (1) |
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424 | (1) |
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425 | (1) |
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425 | (1) |
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Selection of Contracts for Seasonal Studies |
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425 | (1) |
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Examples of Analogy Studies |
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426 | (4) |
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Projection of Spring High and Subsequent Low in July 1993 Soybeans |
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426 | (2) |
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Analogous Season Approach Based on Price Action: Projecting the July High and the Setback Low in November Soybeans |
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428 | (2) |
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Incorporating Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal Forecasts |
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430 | (1) |
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Reports and Sources of Information |
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430 | (2) |
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430 | (1) |
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431 | (1) |
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432 | (1) |
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433 | (14) |
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433 | (3) |
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436 | (3) |
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439 | (2) |
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441 | (3) |
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Forecasting Prices Before the Start of the Season |
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444 | (2) |
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446 | (1) |
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Forecasting Coffee Prices |
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447 | (22) |
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Coffee Before and After Export Controls |
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447 | (4) |
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The Rank Classification Method of Analysis |
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451 | (1) |
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Evaluating the Producer Nation Balance Sheet |
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451 | (6) |
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453 | (1) |
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Exports as a Percent of Export Availability |
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453 | (1) |
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454 | (1) |
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The Basics of Coffee Production |
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454 | (1) |
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Combining the Producer Balance Sheet Variable Rankings |
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455 | (1) |
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Ranking the Production Variables: Two Examples |
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455 | (2) |
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Evaluating the Consumer Nation Balance Sheet |
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457 | (8) |
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Constructing a Consumer Nation Balance Sheet |
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458 | (2) |
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460 | (1) |
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461 | (1) |
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Stocks/Disappearance Ratio |
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461 | (1) |
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Ranking the Consumer Variables: Two Examples |
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462 | (3) |
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Deriving a Combined Price Forecast |
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465 | (3) |
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Expanding the Basic Model |
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468 | (1) |
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468 | (1) |
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Forecasting Crude Oil Prices |
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469 | (11) |
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First Things First: Not All Crudes Are Created Equal |
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469 | (1) |
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The Supply/Consumption Balance |
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470 | (4) |
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470 | (1) |
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471 | (1) |
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472 | (1) |
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Inventories: The Phantom Data |
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472 | (2) |
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OPEC Politics: The Critical Determinant of Oil Price Forecasting |
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474 | (2) |
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Forecasting Oil Prices: A Synthesis of Methodologies |
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476 | (4) |
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Forecasting Copper Prices |
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480 | (18) |
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480 | (1) |
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481 | (3) |
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481 | (1) |
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482 | (2) |
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The Copper Spread as an Indicator |
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484 | (3) |
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Lagging Variables for Availability |
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487 | (1) |
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Translating Fundamentals into Timing Signals |
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487 | (7) |
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494 | (1) |
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Appendix: Understanding the Difference between Nearest and Continuous Futures |
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495 | (3) |
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495 | (1) |
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496 | (1) |
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Which Price Series Is Better? |
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497 | (1) |
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Forecasting Gold (Precious Metal) Prices |
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498 | (13) |
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Gold Fundamentals: What's Not Important |
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498 | (1) |
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499 | (2) |
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501 | (3) |
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504 | (1) |
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The Relationship Between Gold and Interest Rates |
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505 | (2) |
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507 | (1) |
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Constructing a Composite Index |
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508 | (1) |
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509 | (2) |
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Forecasting Currency Rates |
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511 | (17) |
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Purchasing Power Parity Theorem |
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512 | (2) |
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514 | (2) |
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516 | (2) |
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518 | (1) |
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519 | (1) |
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Constructing a Currency-Forecasting Model: The $/DM |
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520 | (1) |
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When Things Go Wrong: Structural Changes and Impact of Government Policies |
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521 | (4) |
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525 | (1) |
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526 | (2) |
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Forecasting Interest Rates |
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528 | (16) |
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529 | (3) |
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532 | (4) |
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Supply Factors: The Federal Reserve |
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536 | (4) |
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540 | (1) |
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Addendum: Pricing the T-Bond Futures Contract |
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540 | (4) |
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Forecasting Foreign Interest Rate Markets |
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544 | (20) |
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The Interdependence of the World's Bond Markets |
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548 | (2) |
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550 | (2) |
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552 | (1) |
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553 | (2) |
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555 | (1) |
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556 | (2) |
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558 | (1) |
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558 | (1) |
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A Forecasting Example: British Interest Rates |
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559 | (1) |
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Regional Factors and Prospects for the Future |
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560 | (3) |
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561 | (1) |
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562 | (1) |
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563 | (1) |
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563 | (1) |
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Forecasting the Stock Market |
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564 | (31) |
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What Drives the Stock Market? |
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565 | (1) |
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565 | (1) |
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566 | (2) |
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568 | (6) |
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Monetary Policy and Interest Rates |
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574 | (4) |
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The Economy, the Business Cycle, and Inflation |
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578 | (8) |
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586 | (1) |
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586 | (1) |
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586 | (3) |
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Translating Market Indicators into Timing Signals |
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589 | (3) |
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592 | (1) |
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593 | (2) |
| Appendix: Contract Details |
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595 | (30) |
| Index |
|
625 | |
Other versions by this Author
