Decision Making With Insight: Includes Insight.Xla 2.0 (Book with CD-ROM),9780534386399

Decision Making With Insight: Includes Insight.Xla 2.0 (Book with CD-ROM)

by
Edition: 2nd
ISBN13: 9780534386399
ISBN10: 0534386393
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2003-01-14
Publisher(s): South-Western College Pub
Upgraded Edition: Click here!
  • Free Shipping Icon

    This Item Qualifies for Free Shipping!*

    *Excludes marketplace orders.

List Price: $176.95

Rent Textbook

Select for Price
Add to Cart
There was a problem. Please try again later.

New Textbook

We're Sorry
Sold Out

Used Textbook

We're Sorry
Sold Out

eTextbook

We're Sorry
Not Available

Buy from our Marketplace starting at $2.82

How Marketplace Works:

  • This item is offered by an independent seller and not shipped from our warehouse
  • Item details like edition and cover design may differ from our description; see seller's comments before ordering.
  • Sellers much confirm and ship within two business days; otherwise, the order will be cancelled and refunded.
  • Marketplace purchases cannot be returned to eCampus.com. Contact the seller directly for inquiries; if no response within two days, contact customer service.
  • Additional shipping costs apply to Marketplace purchases. Review shipping costs at checkout.

Summary

Dr. Sam Savage, who's recognized as a leading innovator in management science education, provides the most hands-on , practical introductionto methods of decision making. This book and accompanying suite of Excel add-ins for quantitative analysis covers Monte Carlo simulation,decision trees, queuing simulations, optimization, Markov chains, and forecasting. The Insight add-ins have been developed over several yearsby the author.

Author Biography

Sam Savage (Ph.D., Yale University) began teaching management science at the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business in 1974. He has taught at Stanford University's School of Engineering since 1990 where he is a Consulting Professor

Table of Contents

Fundamental Concepts xv
Exercises xvi
Tutorials xx
Road Map xxii
Overview of Decision Making with Insight and Insight.xla 2.0 xxiii
Application Matrix xxiv
Analytical Modeling in Spreadsheets
1(18)
Introduction
2(2)
The Technology of Decision Making
2(1)
Disciplined Intuition: A Philosophy
3(1)
Analytical Models
3(1)
Tutorial: Important Modeling Techniques
4(8)
Understanding the Elements of a Worksheet Model
5(1)
Separation of Data and Formulas
5(1)
Making Sure the Model is Scalable
6(2)
Experimenting with the Model
8(4)
The Voices of Experience
12(5)
The Pros and Cons of Spreadsheet Modeling
17(2)
First the Cons
17(1)
Now the Pros
18(1)
The Building Blocks of Uncertainty: Random Variables
19(37)
Introduction
20(1)
From Manhattan Project to Wall Street
20(1)
XLSim®
21(1)
Tutorial: Estimating Profit with Monte Carlo Simulation
21(9)
An Example: Uncertain Profit
21(2)
Monte Carlo Simulation: The Basic Steps
23(7)
The Building Blocks of Uncertainty
30(26)
Uncertain Numbers: Random Variables
31(7)
Averages of Uncertain Numbers: Diversification and the Central Limit Theorem
38(7)
Important Classes of Uncertain Numbers: Idealized Distributions
45(2)
An Investment Example
47(7)
Risk vs. Uncertainty: Risk Management
54(1)
Value at Risk: Managing Risk in the Investment Example
54(1)
Conclusion
55(1)
The Buildings of Uncertainty: Functions of Random Variables
56(55)
Introduction
57(1)
Tutorial: Estimating Inventory Costs Given Uncertain Demand
57(8)
An Inventory Problem
58(1)
Simulating the Cost
59(4)
Simulation Results
63(1)
The Flaw of Averages
64(1)
The Buildings of Uncertainty
65(46)
Worksheet Models Based on Uncertain Numbers: Functions of Random Variables
66(4)
Experimenting Under Uncertainty: Parameterized Simulation
70(8)
The Increase of Option Prices with Uncertainty: Implied Volatility
78(1)
Uncertain Numbers That Are Related to Each Other: Statistical Dependence
79(12)
The Connection with Linear Regression
91(1)
Portfolios of Correlated Investments
92(4)
How Many Trials Are Enough? Convergence
96(2)
Sensitivity Analysis: The Big Picture
98(2)
Hypothesis Testing: Did it Happen by Chance
100(6)
Conclusion
106(5)
Uncertainties That Evolve Over Time
111(43)
Introduction
112(1)
Systems That Evolve Over Time
112(1)
QUEUE.xla and Q_NET.xla
113(1)
Simulation Through Time: Discrete-Event Simulation
113(28)
A Fixed-Time-Incremented Simulation of a Forest Fire
114(2)
Cellular Automata
116(2)
Queuing Models
118(3)
Classifying Queues
121(1)
Fixed- versus Event-Incremented Time
121(3)
Queuing Networks
124(6)
The Extend™ Discrete Event Simulation Software
130(6)
Combining Excel Models with Extend
136(5)
Markov Chains
141(13)
An Example: Market Share
141(1)
MARKOV.xls
142(2)
A Remarkable Property of Markov Chains
144(4)
Modifying the Transition Matrix to Evaluate Replacement Strategy
148(3)
Conclusion
151(3)
Forecasting
154(29)
Introduction
155(3)
Causal Forecasting
155(1)
Time Series Analysis
156(2)
Using Excel's Regression and XLForecast
158(10)
Tutorials: Regression and Time Series Analysis
159(1)
Regression: Estimating Sales Based on Advertising Level
159(5)
Time Series Analysis: Predicting Future Sales Based on Past History
164(4)
The Importance of Errors
168(9)
Errors Generated by Regression
169(4)
Errors Generated by Time Series
173(1)
Predicting the Past
174(3)
Conclusions
177(1)
Explanation of Regression and Exponential Smoothing
177(6)
Regression
177(1)
Exponential Smoothing
178(5)
Decision Trees
183(39)
Introduction
184(2)
An Example: Ice Cream and Parking Tickets
184(2)
Good Decisions versus Good Outcomes
186(1)
XLTree
186(1)
Tutorial: Building a Decision Tree
186(7)
Experimental Drug Development
186(1)
Building a Decision Tree with XLTree
187(6)
Decision Analysis: Basic Concepts
193(29)
Utility
194(2)
Probability
196(2)
Expected Value
198(1)
Decision Forks
199(1)
Uncertainty Forks
200(2)
Sensitivity Analysis
202(3)
Conditional Probability
205(3)
The Value of Information
208(5)
State Variables
213(6)
Mustering the Courage of Your Convictions
219(3)
Overview of Optimization
222(32)
Introduction
223(4)
The ABC's of Optimization
223(4)
Tutorial: Maximum Profit
227(9)
How Many Boats to Produce?
227(2)
The ABC's of Optimization
229(4)
Interacting with the Model: What'sBest!
233(1)
The D's of Optimization: Dual Values
234(2)
Basic Optimization Examples
236(18)
Product Mix
237(1)
Blending
237(3)
Staff Scheduling
240(5)
Transportation
245(2)
Network Flow Models
247(5)
Conclusion
252(2)
Extensions of Optimization
254(47)
Extending the Application of Optimization
255(26)
Integer Variables
255(7)
Combining Optimization Models: An Object Oriented Approach
262(8)
Optimization Under Uncertainty
270(4)
Nonlinear Optimization
274(4)
Combinatorial Optimization
278(2)
Complete Evaluation Times for N-City Traveling Salesman Problem
280(1)
Common Errors in Optimization Models
281(3)
Linear and Nonlinear Formulas
281(2)
Improper Constraints
283(1)
Local Maxima or Minima in Nonlinear Optimization
283(1)
The Basics of Optimization Theory
284(17)
Optimizing a Simplified BOAT Problem
284(5)
Linear versus Nonlinear Problems
289(2)
More on Dual Values
291(2)
Conclusion
293(8)
Appendix A: Queuing Equations: QUEUE.xla and Q_NET.xla
301(4)
Appendix B: Two-Parameter Exponential Smoothing for Estimating Trends
305(3)
Appendix C: Software Command Reference
308(43)
XLSim®
308(12)
QUEUE.xla and Q_NET.xla
320(4)
Extend™
324(6)
XLForecast™
330(4)
XLTree™
334(10)
Optimization Software
344(7)
References
351(2)
Index
353(7)
Software Contained on the CD ROM
360(1)
Praise for the 1st Edition
360

An electronic version of this book is available through VitalSource.

This book is viewable on PC, Mac, iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch, and most smartphones.

By purchasing, you will be able to view this book online, as well as download it, for the chosen number of days.

Digital License

You are licensing a digital product for a set duration. Durations are set forth in the product description, with "Lifetime" typically meaning five (5) years of online access and permanent download to a supported device. All licenses are non-transferable.

More details can be found here.

A downloadable version of this book is available through the eCampus Reader or compatible Adobe readers.

Applications are available on iOS, Android, PC, Mac, and Windows Mobile platforms.

Please view the compatibility matrix prior to purchase.